Understanding the Confidence Scoring System
A detailed explanation of how The Sudan Record calculates confidence scores for incident reports, including the methodology, data sources, and verification processes used.
Understanding the Confidence Scoring System
The Sudan Record uses a transparent, calculated confidence scoring system to help users understand the reliability of each incident report. This post explains how our scoring works.
Why Confidence Scores Matter
In conflict documentation, not all information is equally reliable. Social media posts, official statements, NGO reports, and satellite imagery all provide valuable data, but their reliability varies significantly. Our confidence scoring system quantifies this reliability.
How Scores Are Calculated
Each incident starts with a base score of 50 points. Points are then added or subtracted based on various factors:
Positive Factors
- **Verified NGO/UN source (+30)**: Confirmation from established humanitarian organizations
- **Multiple independent sources (+20)**: Corroboration from 2+ unrelated sources
- **Satellite corroboration (+15)**: Evidence visible in satellite imagery
- **Geolocation confirmed (+10)**: Location verified through visual analysis
Negative Factors
- **Single social media source (-20)**: Only evidence is unverified social media
- **Actor-controlled media only (-15)**: Source is affiliated with a conflict party
Score Tiers
- **Confirmed (80-100)**: High confidence, multiple verified sources
- **Corroborated (50-79)**: Moderate confidence, some verification
- **Unverified (30-49)**: Low confidence, limited sources
- **Disputed (<30)**: Very low confidence, conflicting information
Transparency
Every incident on The Sudan Record displays its confidence reasoning publicly. Click on any confidence badge to see exactly how the score was calculated.